20041001

2004.09.30 Presidential Debate on Foreign Policy -- Running comments and conclusions

Started at 9:26

Stupid computer refused boot properly, so I'm starting in the middle of the debate


9:24
Good and the bad:

Kerry: he's doing well in attacking Bush. However, he isn't talking much about the details as to how he's going to approach foreign policy. Specifics. At times, he's also sacrificing time to answer the real questions and attacks Bush instead.

Bush: It looks like he did prepare for the debate, but he isn't giving any new messages. He's also going for the machoist stance on policies with "the offensive" and also for "free iraq, free this, free that," "Freedom's good this, freedom is good, that," etc.


9:29
It looks like the rules agreed on got broken. So much for not talking to each other.

9:31
Kerry missed a point to say that the general that the Bushies retired was retired _but_ they ditched the general's plan <300K troops, much less than wat was planned

9:32
Vs. Bush: UN is not back in Iraq helping with elections. The situation has been reported to be too unstable for UN forces to return to Iraq and Afghanastan.


9:36
Bush... he seems to have problems at the moment trying to keep up with Kerry in coming up with different points to support what he claims. He's repeating himself and is not making any new points to rebut Kerry or to even support himself on his own issues. Kerry is also repeating, but not as much as Bush by any means.

9:37
The cameramen seems to be biased in their camera shoots. They're giving a lot of dark profile shots of Kerry, and none of Bush.

9:39
KERRY: EXAMPLES EXAMPLES EXAMPLES!!! URANIUM IN UGANDA! ACTIONS IN THE UN! ARGH! (He's not hitting key points harder)

9:41
Kerry needs to be more stoic. He nods too much in response to Bush's responses. It's getting picked up by the cameras, while Bush doesn't nod. This might hurt him in the sense that he is agreeing to Bush's attacks and is planning to cover them up in his next response.

9:43
Bush, in response to Kerry's explanation, doesn't rebut his logic, but decides to attack his consistency... huh?

9:47
My God. Kerry's not going for Bush's Jugular! Unsafe areas in Iraq have been admitted by the administration. Claims that people there can't vote because of lack of safety, but will still go with voting process without counting the votes in those areas

9:48
Kerry's specifics in Iraq plan. Closing borders? How? Global plan is nice, but how can you close such a porous border? He hasn't gotten into any real concrete specifics.

Bush Rebuttal: His numbers are inflated in trained iraqi forces. Alawi is not a leader of Iraq, Bush. He's appointed by the US to lead country towards elections. There isn't much else in domestic policy that he has control over.

9:57
FINALLY Kerry hits the Jugular with Iraq and Hussein vs. bin Laden in attacking the US.


10:00
Bush is nit picking... And what treaties did you really sign? He makes no case and, instead, decides to talk about why he didn't agree to a treaty to create an international court to which the US would be under its jurisdiction

He paints the International Court as an evil international body? Unaccountable judges? That's total BS. Undersight by the UN would give it accountability.

OMG. KERRY WAS DENIED A RESPONSE TO THE INTERNATIONAL COURT. NOOO!!!


10:07
Kerry was denied a response to Bush's response to respondn to N. Korea and Iran sanctions. It seems that Leherer is trying not to be leaning too much for Kerry, but it seems to be going too far and he is denying Kerry the chance to really break out.

10:09
Bush commits money to Uganda but no forces. What good is it when no security is available to help distribute the aid that is bought with the money?

10:12
Bush is pushing a presendency on emotion and gut feeling? What a joke. Where has logic reasoning and practical diplomacy gone?

10:17
Kerry's answer to the primary threat to the US is nuclear proliferation isn't the best answer. It seems to be more of a cold war idea if anything.

Kerry is also speaking too intelligently. He's running a really big risk that potential supporters that would switch sides don't really understand him.


Summaries of each person's conclusions on foreign policy:
Bush paints a picture of an evil, faceless enemy, and for the US to go at them
Bush has not laid out any plans for future foreign policy other than further fighting; unilateralism.. but still wants to build alliances? how is this possible?
Free iraq and afghanastan? He has only painted an evil enemy, and has claimed freedom in iraq and afghanastan
Pleads more for the hearts of americans compared to the logic.


Kerry promotes cooperation with allies in dealing with threats
Kerry is trying for peace; multilateralism; believes that Bush has botched up everything in foreign policy
Kerry cutting off finances to.. whom? wrt to terrorists?


Recap:
Kerry won the debate, but not decisively. He attacked Bush consistently on Bush's failures in his foreign policy and inconsistencies. He also reiterated certain points and positions that contrasted strongly against Bush's. And this was all done with great poise and with deliberate syntax. He was very concise, a stark contrast to his usual stump speeches on his campaign trail.

Bush, on the other hand, did not have the debating finesse that Kerry had and ended up repeating himself with with simple ideas and sentences, while stumbling frequently in trying to get his message out. At some times, he dodged the question completely, and nit-picked Kerry's responses to the arbitrator's questions. He also repeated certain personal facts and tried to pass them off without supporting them without hard numbers like Kerry did, identical to his stump speeches in his campaign rallies.

Despite Kerry's laudable and Bush's seemingly incompetent performances, Kerry did not deal a damaging blow to Bush. Frankly, if Kerry was firing on all gears, he could have torn Bush apart. Unfortunately, I think that Kerry held back because he didn't want to come across as mean or "unpatriotic." Also, the debate format of 2 minute answers prevented Kerry from gaining any ground, but it was perfect for Bush to iterate his views on Iraq and his foreign policy "successes." My prediction is that the polls won't shift very much since the candidates didn't get much of a chance to dig into each other to point out faults with each other's plans in foreign policy. Hell, not many foreign policy plans were laid out at all.

Anyway, the next debate is October 8. Unfortunately, I'll be missing about 1/3 of the debate because I'll be attending a perforance by the Capitol Steps, a political satire group who basically makes fun of everything you can think about the US and politics.

Until then...


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